Sep. 28, 2005
Analysis: Anything except ideology
By Gil Hoffman

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon’s aides enjoyed making fun of former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu after the results of Monday’s votes were announced.

Mocking Netanyahu’s repeated statements ahead of the vote that Sharon had made the Likud into Meretz, a Sharon aide said that Netanyahu would now have to decide whether "to leave the party or stay with us here in Meretz."

The quip underlies the key mistake that Netanyahu made in his campaign: He overestimated the attachment of the Likud central committee members to their own ideology. Sharon’s disengagement plan was a significant departure from the Likud’s traditional ideals, but the central committee rejected an opportunity to protest the change.

"While Sharon used interests and threats, we used ideas and persuasion,‘ said Netanyahu’s bureau chief, Yechiel Leiter. ’The ideas lost in the short-run, but I am confident that they will win in the long run."

Leiter’s thesis will be tested in the race for party chairman in the spring. He hopes that the Likud’s 132,000 members prove themselves more loyal than the 3,050 Likud central committee members.

Sharon succeeded in refocusing the race away from disengagement, guessing correctly that the central committee members would prefer to look out for their own welfare than that of the 8,000 people evacuated from Gush Katif.

There were at least seven reasons that the central committee decided not to advance the primary, but ideology was probably not one of them. Based on conversations with central committee members at the Tel Aviv Fairgrounds on Sunday and Monday, here are the reasons why Sharon won the vote:

Respect for Sharon: Likudniks are notoriously loyal to their prime minister. They hang up pictures of him in their homes and businesses. After suffering in the opposition for 30 years, they appreciate that the nation’s leader is one of their own and it would take a lot for them to overthrow their own man. Sharon deserves credit for working hard to charm and persuade central committee members in recent days.

Worries over a split: The central committee members took to heart Sharon’s hints that he could form another party that would take away more than half the Likud’s mandates. About 400 central committee members are considering running for the next Knesset. Most of the rest are their relatives or close friends, and no one wanted to jeopardize their chances of getting elected.

Worries over losing power: The political patronage positions that come with controlling the government were a strong motivating factor for the central committee members. The very fact that half the members managed to vote on Monday before 5 p.m. shows how many of them are either unemployed or have a cushy government job that gives them a good salary with few hours. Prematurely ending a Likud-led government means risking their livelihood.

The microphone fiasco: Regardless of who was responsible, Sharon was portrayed as the victim. He stood up at the podium looking helpless and the central committee members came to his rescue by allowing him to stay in power and deliver more speeches.

The violence in the Gaza Strip: In their speeches on Sunday night, Netanyahu and Landau accused Sharon of not reacting harshly enough to the rocket attacks on Sderot. Five minutes later, central committee chairman Tzahi Hanegbi announced that an Islamic Jihad leader in Gaza had been assassinated. Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz said the hit had nothing to do with politics, but Likud officials admitted last week that killing Arab terrorists would help the Sharon campaign.

The ’Aryeh Deri factor’: The allegations against Sharon that he raised funds illegally in New York returned him to the negative spotlight of the media and the state prosecution, two institutions that Likudniks love to hate. Ironically, the investigation was a ticket back into the Likud for Sharon after months of media protection as the proverbial etrog.

Netanyahu’s nastiness: The former prime minister knows that he is his own worst enemy. He lost supporters by attacking Sharon too harshly, by appearing over-ambitious, and by sweating too much in his opening press conference. This eroded the professional image he had built up in the Foreign Ministry and the Treasury. Netanyahu has complained about the media’s treatment of him, but he ultimately has only himself to blame.

News Parties look to gain from Likud turmoil Sep. 29, 2005 PM aide: If Likud doesn't back Sharon, he'll leave Sep. 28, 2005 Sharon: I will guide Likud Sep. 27, 2005 Sharon prevails in Likud showdown Sept. 26, 2005 Sharon's planned speech to the Likud central committee Sept. 26, 2005 Netanyahu's speech to the Likud central committee Sept. 26, 2005 Cliffhanger Likud meeting opens Sunday Sept. 25, 2005 PM sees vote against him as 'tantamount to impeachment' Sept. 23, 2005 Sharon assures supporters he'll win Sept. 21, 2005 PM: I've lost Likud majority Sept. 19, 2005 Opinions Feature: How does Netanyahu make his comeback? Sep. 29, 2005 Analysis: Anything except ideology Sep. 28, 2005 Analysis: PM wins battle, but war goes on Sept. 26, 2005 Analysis: Will the Aryeh Deri factor save Sharon? Sept. 22, 2005 The right leadership during dangerous times Sept. 21, 2005 Rattling the Cage: Being Bibi - in the Sharon era Sept. 14, 2005