Sep. 26, 2005 Analysis: PM wins battle, but war goes on
By GIL HOFFMAN
Prime Minister Ariel Sharon ostensibly won a few more months in power when the Likud central committee decided against advancing the party’s primary on Monday, but there is no guarantee that his tenure in the Likud or the Prime Minister’s Office has actually been extended.
Sharon’s political opponents were weakened by the vote, but no one doubts that former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, MK Uzi Landau and the Likud rebels will continue to do everything possible to topple Sharon.
They tried to stop Sharon by forcing Knesset votes on disengagement, the budget, and a national referendum on withdrawing from Gaza. They attempted to harm the prime minister politically with Likud votes on the plan, on Labor joining the coalition and on advancing the primary.
Now, the battle between Sharon and his rivals will likely return to the Knesset, where Netanyahu will continue efforts to obtain the votes of the 61 MKs necessary to topple the prime minister. He is unlikely to be successful at this stage because Shinui does not want to bring down the government over disengagement and Labor wants to remain in the coalition until the budget comes to a vote early next year.
Sharon’s advisers are divided over whether the prime minister should remain in the Likud. Some suggest that he cannot continue leading a party of extremists who opposed disengagement, while others still believe that the party’s rifts can be overcome.
If Sharon does decide to leave the Likud, there could be no better time than now, when he is at the peak of his popularity after disengagement. He can use the many attempts to topple him as an excuse to quit the Likud and form a new party – despite his victory on Monday.
In such a scenario, it is likely that Sharon would ask President Moshe Katsav to disperse the Knesset immediately. Sharon would want elections as soon as possible, because new center parties tend to start off high in the polls and fall as the campaign goes on.
Sharon would try to draft to the new party allies like Vice Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni, as well as outsiders like former Shin Bet chief Avi Dichter and Ben-Gurion University President Avishay Braverman.
But if Sharon decides to remain in the Likud, he will likely try to extend his tenure in the Prime Minister’s Office for as long as possible. He may even attempt to become only the third prime minister in Israel’s history to complete his term, against all odds.
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