Sep. 14, 2005

Rattling the Cage: Being Bibi — in the Sharon era

LARRY DERFNER

What’s happened to Binyamin Netanyahu? He used to be considered the most brilliant politician Israel had ever seen, a magician, the guy who couldn’t be beaten. Now?

He’s become the biggest blunderer in Israeli politics. He’s not just a loser, he’s a spectacular one.

All he’s going to do for the next year is get beaten — by Ariel Sharon. It’s understood now that his surprise resignation as finance minister a month ago, followed by his challenge to Sharon for chairmanship of Likud and leadership of the country, was a colossal mistake.

The polls have already turned around; they now say Netanyahu is going to lose his battle royal with Sharon at the Likud Central Committee on September 26, and the Likud primaries will not be moved up as Netanyahu wants.

I think it’s going to be a wipeout. I bet Sharon wins by about a 2—1 margin. The wheeler-dealers who dominate the Central Committee don’t care about Gush Katif, they care about taking care of No. 1, about getting as much juice as they can. And Sharon can deliver much more juice — i.e. Likud Knesset seats — than Netanyahu. That’s a proven fact, and it’s truer now than ever. You don’t need polls to figure it out, you don’t have to be too calculating — and if there’s one thing to be said about Likud Central Committee members, they’re calculating.

So maybe they had a spasm of nationalist guilt on the eve of disengagement, when Netanyahu got it into his head to quit the Finance Ministry and go for it all. They were screaming for Sharon’s blood, and Netanyahu made the mistake of thinking they meant it.

He forgot recent history. The Likud Central Committee could have stopped the disengagement cold last December, when it voted on whether to let Sharon stabilize his government by bringing the Labor Party into it. If the Central Committee had denied Sharon, he would have had to call new elections. Disengagement would have gone into suspended animation.

But even though it meant the end of Gush Katif, even though it meant partnership with Labor and Shimon Peres whom they love like cholera, the Likud Central Committee voted 62%-38% to keep Sharon securely in the prime minister’s seat.

That’s how much these people care about power, and that’s how much they care about ideology.

NETANYAHU’S CAMPAIGN is a regular oldies show — he’s calling Sharon a leftist, he’s accusing him of dividing Jerusalem. It’s no doubt bringing a twinkle to the eye of many a Likudnik, but this is business. These people are thinking about their future, and their future clearly looks brighter with Sharon.

Netanyahu is going to lose on September 26, and then he’s going to lose the Likud primaries, whenever they’re held, to Sharon, and there won’t be any big or little bangs and Sharon will get reelected prime minister by a landslide in November of next year. Until then, former prime minister Netanyahu will be an MK on the outs.

His decision to quit the cabinet and take on Sharon was the second worst tactical error by an Israeli politician in this millennium, at least. What was the worst? Netanyahu’s decision at the end of 2000 to forgo the race for Likud chairman and thereby hand the job to Sharon, who until then was the harmless elder statesman, the mere "caretaker" of the party.

At the time it was a foregone conclusion that Netanyahu would have won that primary in a walk and gone on to steamroll the incumbent premier, Ehud Barak, in the February 2001 election. But Netanyahu figured the Knesset was so deadlocked that he, like other recent prime ministers, would be stymied in power. So he decided to pass on the race and wait until the Right won a solid Knesset majority, and then he would be able to become prime minister for a good, long time.

And so it was Sharon who won the Likud primary, clobbered Barak and took over the country — only he didn’t become stymied in power. With the intifada battering Israel, the public clung to him like a rock. He had no opposition. When Labor got up the guts to try to bring him down, Sharon won so many seats for Likud that it became Israel’s most dominant political party since the days of Mapai.

After that, he made history with disengagement. And none of this would have been possible without Netanyahu’s decision in the waning days of 2000 to pass up a sure ticket back to the Prime Minister’s Office.

WHAT’S HAPPENED to the wonder boy who came from 30 points behind in the polls after the Rabin assassination to win the 1996 election?

Some think his personality flaws, mainly arrogance, have gotten the better of him. Others think he’s been taking the ideologically-skewed counsel of his aide Yehiel Leiter, a former Yesha Council spokesman.

I don’t think it’s either of these things. In fact, I don’t think Netanyahu is really to blame for either of his historic missteps, neither in December 2000 nor in August 2005.

Instead, what happened was that he simply met his match. In both cases Netanyahu had the misfortune to be going up against Sharon, who has turned out to be the most formidable prime minister since Ben-Gurion. He is tougher, shrewder and more popular than any Israeli leader since the first one.

Folks, we’re living in the Sharon Era.

Netanyahu’s luck is that Sharon is 77; chances are he’s not going to remain prime minister that much longer. One day he will leave behind a line-up of middling contenders, at best, in Likud, which means the way will be clear for Netanyahu to make yet another comeback.

He may become prime minister again — just not for now. So long as Sharon is healthy, not only Netanyahu but any Israeli politician who challenges him will come out the loser.

Funny, that’s what they used to say about Bibi.

News Parties look to gain from Likud turmoil Sep. 29, 2005 PM aide: If Likud doesn't back Sharon, he'll leave Sep. 28, 2005 Sharon: I will guide Likud Sep. 27, 2005 Sharon prevails in Likud showdown Sept. 26, 2005 Sharon's planned speech to the Likud central committee Sept. 26, 2005 Netanyahu's speech to the Likud central committee Sept. 26, 2005 Cliffhanger Likud meeting opens Sunday Sept. 25, 2005 PM sees vote against him as 'tantamount to impeachment' Sept. 23, 2005 Sharon assures supporters he'll win Sept. 21, 2005 PM: I've lost Likud majority Sept. 19, 2005 Opinions Feature: How does Netanyahu make his comeback? Sep. 29, 2005 Analysis: Anything except ideology Sep. 28, 2005 Analysis: PM wins battle, but war goes on Sept. 26, 2005 Analysis: Will the Aryeh Deri factor save Sharon? Sept. 22, 2005 The right leadership during dangerous times Sept. 21, 2005 Rattling the Cage: Being Bibi - in the Sharon era Sept. 14, 2005