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KHALED ABU TOAMEH:
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Yes, Prime Minister

On Wednesday afternoon, after three days of keeping the PA in suspense, Ahmed Qurei (Abu Ala), the speaker of the Palestinian Legislative Council, announced that he has accepted the offer to become the second prime minister in the Palestinian Authority. Qurei, according to his aides, had delayed his decision, because he wanted first to make sure that the US and Israel would help him in his mission.

"Abu Ala knows that if the Americans and the Israelis are against him, he wouldn't be able to accept the post," said one aide. "He doesn't want to walk into a minefield. One of the reasons why Mahmoud Abbas failed was because the US and Israel didn't take measures that would have bolstered his standing among the Palestinians."

The aide was specifically referring to Israel's refusal to release more Palestinians prisoners, the continued construction of the security fence and settlements in the West Bank and the ongoing assassination and detention of activists. The Americans, for their part, are to blame for failing to employ enough pressure on Israel to halt its military crackdown on Hamas and Islamic Jihad and lift the closure imposed on many West Bank cities.

However, Qurei's major fear was that once he was in office, he would find himself locked in a tiring power struggle with Yasser Arafat. Qurei does not want to repeat the mistake of his predecessor, Abbas, who spent most of his four-month term wrangling with Arafat. He knows very well that a collision with Arafat, who remains extremely popular among the Palestinians living in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, would inevitably result in his crash.

Nor does Qurei want to be portrayed as a pawn in the hands of the US and Israel - an image which haunted Abbas from the first day he was named prime minister. He knows that the Palestinians would not accept him if Arafat is not happy with him.

That's why the 66-year-old Qurei, who over the past year has suffered a number of heart attacks, held a series of meetings this week with Arafat to try to work out a plan that would enable the two to work together. Qurei went to Arafat to find out what powers he would be given as prime minister and if his authorities would include full responsibility for the vast network of Palestinian security forces. He wanted to make sure that everything was clear from the beginning and that he and Arafat understand the rules of the game.

Unlike Abbas, Qurei is not expected to openly defy Arafat by seeking to take control over the security forces or firing Arafat loyalists in public service. Qurei has always had a better relationship with Arafat than Abbas had. The two have worked together closely for almost three decades, and Palestinians say that Arafat has full confidence in Qurei, who has never sought to undermine the powers of the "president."

In contrast, Arafat and his aides have, for the past few years, suspected Abbas and his minister of security, Muhammad Dahlan, of trying to topple the chairman with some help from Israel and the US.

There is a symbolic significance in the fact that Qurei, a major behind-the-scenes player in secret talks that led to the Oslo Accords, was tapped for the post of prime minister on the 10th anniversary of the signing of the agreement between Israel and the PLO. A staunch believer in the peace process, Qurei is one of the few senior Palestinian officials who have remained on good terms with Israelis after the beginning of the violence three years ago. His friends include Shimon Peres, Avraham Burg and Yossi Beilin.

As speaker of the PLC, Qurei's role in the decision-making process in the Palestinian Authority was limited over the past years. True, Arafat did consult with him from time to time, but he was not present at all the meetings of the Palestinian leadership in Ramallah.

He was instrumental in trying to patch up differences between Arafat and Abbas in the past four months, shuttling between the two in an attempt to find a formula that would allow them to work together. However, he was careful not to be seen siding with one side against the other in the power struggle, although insiders insist that Qurei has also been critical of Arafat's autocratic style in running the affairs of the Palestinian Authority.

Qurei, who is strongly associated with the Oslo Accords, has reemerged at a time when many Israelis and Palestinians are talking about the total failure of the agreement. It's not clear what he can do to salvage the Oslo Accords. The assessment of many in the PA is that there is almost nothing Qurei can do to change the situation.

A senior official in Ramallah said this week that the Oslo Accords are "slowly and painfully dying in the intensive care unit." As prime minister, Qurei will live to see how his dream of achieving a just and comprehensive solution is fading away, as suicide bombers continue to blow themselves up in Israel and as the IDF continues to hunt down Hamas leaders and activists.

Many Palestinians share the assessment that Qurei has taken upon himself an impossible mission, where many forces are at work to make him fail. Some even express concern for his health, pointing out that he will not be able to put up with the stress of the new job.

"His heart won't take it," said a Palestinian political analyst, referring to the heart attacks Qurei has suffered. "The man is working against the advice of his doctors. If he accepts the job, he would be seriously endangering his life. And I mean it," he says.