January 27, 2003

Poll shows Yisrael B'Aliya up to 6 seats

By Elli Wohlgelernter

The latest poll announced Sunday shows Yisrael B'Aliya now garnering six seats in Tuesday's general election, a growing trend that some party members are downplaying while others are attributing it to the endorsement given the party on Friday by The Jerusalem Post.

The poll by Walla!Geocartographia shows Likud falling to 29-30 seats from 31, Labor at 19, Shinui down to 12-13 from 16, Green Leaf 2-3, Shas 10, Meretz 9-10, National Union 8, NRP down one to 5, UTJ 4-5, Herut 2, Am Ehad 3, Balad 2-3, Hadash 2-3, and the United Arab list 2. Six percent said they would vote with a blank slip or not vote at all. The poll has a margin of error of 3.1 percent.

The strong showing by Yisrael B'Aliya on the eve of the election has party leaders treading softly, fearful of appearing overconfident in their month-long predictions.

Party leader Natan Sharansky said he was pleased by the poll results, but said he was no more excited by polls showing six seats than he was disappointed when they showed his party getting four.

"What's happening at this moment is that Israelis who don't speak Russian, and who were not born in Russia, see us as an option," Sharansky said. "It's very natural. Our message from the beginning was for all Israelis, and we've been true to our message, not speaking about quick immediate headlines.

"But I am glad that the message about a strong democratic Israel, where Jewishness and democracy are key words for our internal and external policy, that Israelis accept this message."

Eli Kazhdan, No. 5 on the party list and one of the few "Anglos" with a good chance of reaching the Knesset, said that "in the same way that we try not to get disappointed when we see polls showing us at four seats, we avoid resting on our laurels when the polls give us six. But there is no doubt that a consistently increased showing in the polls over the past two weeks serves as additional motivation for all of our activists from Kiryat Shmona to Eilat."

Kazhdan said the endorsement on Friday of Yisrael B'Aliya by the Post has definitely helped people make up their minds.

"There is no question about it that the positive repercussions we have seen in the Israeli press to the unprecedented endorsement that the Post gave has had a strong effect on people who were contemplating voting Yisrael B'Aliya. This gave them the reassurance that they are not just voting for a sectarian party, but a party with a powerful message for all of Israeli society."

Aryeh Green, head of the Anglo division of Yisrael B'Aliya, echoed Kazhdan's sentiments, saying the endorsement helped sway the undecided. He said his e-mail inbox had about four times the usual Sunday morning traffic, with about a quarter of the messages coming from Hebrew-speaking Israelis expressing interest in the party.

"I am convinced that as more and more Israelis flock to Yisrael B'Aliya's banner, our support is reflected in polls like these," Green said. "Two weeks ago we were at four; last week we were five; today's poll has us at six, and I'm sure the endorsement from the Jerusalem Post helped people on the fence make up their mind, including native Israelis, since the Jerusalem Post endorsement has been covered in the Hebrew press as well."

The person who stands to benefit the most, if Sunday's poll is correct, is No. 6 on the Yisrael B'Aliya list Ya'acov Lifschitz, an economist, a Jerusalem city councilman, and the former director of the Israel Small Business Authority.

Lifschitz said he never trusted the polls to begin with, in part because Russian voters don't like to answer questions on the phone, and are skeptical of polls in general from their experience in the former Soviet Union.

"I'll tell you the truth: in my opinion, a result of seven or six seats was always possible," Lifschitz said. "My candidacy from the beginning was to be No. 6 on the list, and if I did this thinking realistically, it shows we had the potential to overcome the polls and get into the Knesset."

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