January 7, 2003

Poll finds ban of Arab lawmaker won't affect Arab vote

By DAVID RUDGE

Voter turnout among Arabs would decrease only slightly if the Central Elections Committee's decision to disqualify MK Azmi Bishara is upheld by the High Court of Justice, which is to consider the issue on Tuesday.

This was the finding of a recent poll by Prof. Sammy Smooha and Dr. Asad Ghanem of the University of Haifa about voting Arab trends conducted in face-to-face interviews among 700 adults in October and November. The margin of error was 3.7 percent.

One of the questions related to the possibility of Bishara being banned from running and another about the effect if his party, Balad, is disqualified.

According to the findings, 21.8% said in answer to a general question about which parties they would support that they would either not vote, would cast blank ballots, or declined to answer. In the event of Bishara being disqualified, the potential abstention rate rose to 23.4% and to 27.6% if Balad is banned.

The poll also asked about the effect if leaders of the northern faction of the Islamic Movement are indicted for incitement. The absentee rate would then rise to 32% and to nearly 40% if Balad is also banned.

If the Monitoring Committee of the Israeli Arab Leadership calls for a boycott which has not yet happened 42.4% said they would not vote.

"There is a clear distinction between the disqualification of Bishara and his Balad Party. If Bishara is banned, the reaction of Arab voters will be mild," Smooha said on Sunday. "If Balad is disqualified, however, this means an entire political stream in the Arab community will be banned, and this will have more significant consequences."

He said that if Bishara's disqualification is upheld by the High Court, he expects him and leading Balad activists to withdraw the party's list and also call on Arab voters to boycott the election.

This could lead to a split in Balad, with some supporters wishing to continue even without Bishara at the head of the list, he said. "It could also prompt the northern faction of the Islamic Movement to call for a boycott of the election, something it has refrained from doing, explicitly, until now.

"I would imagine then that the Arab community would lose about two seats in the Knesset, which would, of course, significantly reduce the so-called blocking bloc of the center-left and peace camp," Smooha said.

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