January 14, 2003

Labor focuses campaign on PM after drop in polls

By Gil Hoffman

Facing new polls showing its support eroding to below 20 mandates, the Labor Party decided on Monday to sharpen its attacks on Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and called a press conference for Tuesday to rule out joining a national-unity government under his leadership.

The entire Labor list, including unity government supporters Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, Shimon Peres, and Matan Vilna'i, is expected to come to the event to display party solidarity.

The goal of the leftward shift is to convince voters that Labor provides an alternative to Sharon and prevent him from promising a unity government after the January 28 election.

Labor Party chairman Amram Mitzna is expected to attack Sharon's age for the first time, suggesting that at 74 he is too old to function and will not finish a four-year term either because of his age or because ongoing criminal investigations could force him to resign.

"The allegations against Sharon preclude us from sitting under him in a Likud-led government," party secretary-general Ophir Pines-Paz said. "Sharon is unfit to serve as prime minister because of the charges against him. We have not risen in the polls because the public does not see us as an alternative. They are still under the illusion that we will sit with Sharon, so all we have to do is make it clear that we won't."

Labor has been running a very aggressive negative campaign against Sharon, portraying him as the "godfather" of a Mafia-style family.

Labor strategists sparred with Mitzna a month ago for ruling out joining a unity government, which is popular with the public. But the same strategists decided Monday that the way to boost the party in the polls is to add even more negative attacks and strengthen its message against unity.

"We are ready to start out an all-out war and take our gloves off against Sharon," a Labor strategist said.

"Starting now, it's time to stop being nice and explain loud and clear that Sharon's corruption, extremist policies, and loyalty to the settlers make him unfit to be prime minister."

A Dahaf Institute poll published Monday predicted 32 to 33 seats for the Likud and only 20 for Labor. On Friday, the same company had forecast 28 for Likud and 21 to 22 for Labor. A New Wave poll had similar results, with Likud winning 32 seats compared to last week's 30, and Labor falling from 22 mandates to 20. Both polls had a 4.5 percent margin of error.

An internal Likud poll gave the party 33 to 34 seats, and Labor only 18 to 19. Labor said its internal polls give it significantly more support. "I am not a commentator or an analyzer of polls," Mitzna said while touring poor neighborhoods in Tel Aviv. "I wasn't euphoric when the polls showed good results, and I'm not disappointed now. There are still two weeks until the election there's plenty of time, and I have no doubt the results will change."

But privately top Labor officials suggested the real reason it has not risen in the polls is Mitzna himself. They said it is difficult to market a candidate virtually unknown in the public until a few months ago against a well-respected incumbent like Sharon.

Likud campaign strategists said they were surprised by Mitzna's decision to turn leftward, saying the decision makes no sense politically or strategically when undecided voters are in the center of the political map. At the height of the Likud corruption allegations last week, polls showed the Right was only one mandate away from losing the 61 MKs needed to form a government of religious and right-leaning parties.

A Likud poll showed that 63% of the public want a national-unity government, while only 23% oppose it. The Likud campaign said Labor's decision to come out so strongly against a unity government is a message to voters who want such a government that they must vote Likud.

"Labor's decision not to sit in national-unity government proves that Mitzna is disconnected from the nation that wants a national-unity government even today," Likud campaign manager Leor Horev said. "Labor fell in the polls because of its own arrogance. Its direct attacks against the prime minister had a boomerang effect. In the next two weeks, Labor will have to fight Shinui to avoid becoming the third-largest party."

Horev said the decision of the chairman of the Central Elections Committee, Supreme Court Justice Mishael Cheshin, to pull the plug on Sharon's press conference on Thursday also boosted the Likud in the polls. Cheshin stopped the broadcast because of laws prohibiting election propaganda, but the move allowed the Likud to claim that Sharon was the victim of an elitist, leftist judicial system.

The head of the Likud campaign, Jerusalem Mayor Ehud Olmert, went on the air in the Likud's commercials Monday night to criticize Cheshin's decision and Labor for its attacks on Sharon. The ad showed ordinary citizens on the street decrying Cheshin for having the "chutzpah" to pull the plug on the prime minister.

Labor countered with an ad depicting Sharon as the godfather and a new commercial accusing him of not building a security fence for political reasons. A Likud ad that followed proclaimed that Sharon is building a security fence, with Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz explaining the dangers of Mitzna's plan to withdraw unilaterally from much of the West Bank.

The Likud blamed Mitzna for the increase in terror attacks over the past few days, saying that "anyone guaranteeing the Palestinians an unconditional unilateral withdrawal and suggesting bringing international forces to the area raises false hopes among the Palestinians and makes defeating terror more difficult."

Labor decided in a meeting late Monday night to begin broadcasting commercials on Tuesday explaining why it will not join a Sharon-led government.

The National Union and National Religious Party praised Mitzna for ruling out a unity government, saying that now Sharon will have no choice but to form the rightist government necessary to bring security.

Meretz leader Yossi Sarid responded to Mitzna's declaration that he would not join a unity government by saying that he is now "competing with Meretz for votes" instead of with the Likud, which shows that he has "given up" the election. Sarid also said that Mitzna's declarations are "irrelevant" because the rest of the Labor leadership, primarily Ben-Eliezer, will push to join a unity government. Mitzna will "not be able to single-handedly resist the pressure," he said. Nina Gilbert contributed to this report.

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