Nov. 6, 2002

The shape of the next Knesset?

By Gil Hoffman

Jerusalem Post political correspondent Gil Hoffman looks at what lies ahead for the parties in the Knesset (current number of seats in parentheses):

Likud (21) Likud leadership candidate Binyamin Netanyahu predicted on Tuesday that the Likud will more than double its representation in the next Knesset. Netanyahu cited polls, which for more than two years have indicated the Likud will double its mandates to more than 40. But a Dahaf Institute poll last week indicated the Likud may be losing support. The poll predicted the Likud will receive only 29 mandates, which is still 10 more than the 19 MKs the Likud elected in 1999.

The party is set to gain two MKs this week when the defections of the Center Party's Roni Milo and Yehiel Lasri become official. The return of the indirect election system works in the Likud's favor.

The Likud leadership race between Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and Netanyahu is likely to significantly impact the composition of the Knesset, because Sharon can attract votes from the Center, while Netanyahu, who has positioned himself further to the Right, may allow the Likud to take away mandates from parties on the Right. Either way the Likud is expected to gain significantly in the race and could reach the 40-MK plateau.

Labor (25) Labor ran in 1999 as part of the One Israel block with David Levy's Sephardi Gesher Party and the Left-leaning religious party Meimad. Levy took Gesher out of the block two years ago, but Meimad has not decided its future.

This will be the first election for Labor since the demise of the Oslo diplomatic process and the start of the current conflict under the tenure of former prime minister Ehud Barak. Because the 2001 election was limited to the premiership, the public has until now not been given an opportunity to punish Labor.

Labor's membership is aging and has shifted rightward. Polls show Labor receiving anywhere from 15 to 25 seats in the next Knesset, depending on who wins the party's leadership race. Although the return to the indirect election system was intended to help the large parties, Labor is unlikely to gain mandates in this race.

Shas (17) This race will be the first test for Shas in the post-Aryeh Deri era. The party scored a windfall of 17 MKs in the last election thanks to its campaign that focused on Deri being wrongly accused. The former Shas leader has since then served a prison sentence and become largely invisible since returning home. Deri has repeatedly promised he does not intend to return to politics, but his supporters are convinced he will play a major role in this race.

Unless Deri endorses Shas and takes a visible role in the campaign, the party is expected to fall dramatically in this race to as few as eight or 10 seats. But polls before previous elections consistently underestimated Shas's support, and the faction has increased in size in every election.

Shas mentor Rabbi Ovadia Yosef has given his full backing to current Shas chairman Eli Yishai, which means that MKs loyal to Deri may be off the party's list for the next Knesset. Shas holds no primaries, leaving the decision about the makeup of its list up to the rabbi.

Meretz (10) The future of Meretz is likely to be determined on November 19 when the Labor Party holds its leadership primary. If incumbent chairman Binyamin Ben-Eliezer wins, former justice minister Yossi Beilin has promised to leave Labor and form a social-democratic party together with Meretz and other Labor doves. If that happens, Meretz will likely take mandates away from Labor, but if not, Meretz is expected to remain at 10 seats or lose a mandate or two to Shinui.

Arab factions (10) Like United Torah Judaism, Arab parties grow in support along with the natural growth of their electorate. The Jerusalem mufti called on the factions to unite, which is unlikely but would help the Arabs gain more mandates in the Knesset.

National Union/Yisrael Beiteinu (7) The three parties that make up this faction have to decide whether they are running together in the race. Yisrael Beiteinu leader Avigdor Lieberman has called for the formation of a larger rightist block with the National Religious Party, while Moledet leader Benny Elon may have his party run independently in the race. If an appropriate block can be formed, polls have shown an increase to 10 MKs.

Shinui (6) Shinui leader Yosef Lapid pushed for this election more than anyone in the Knesset, because polls have consistently shown his party gaining significantly in the next race to at least 10 MKs. The demise of the Center Party leaves Shinui as the only major centrist party. In order to retain this status, the party voted to reserve the fifth spot on its list for a representative of the Right, MK Eliezer Sandberg. But most of Shinui's support comes from voters on the Left, who favor the party's secularist, capitalist agenda. Lapid's battles with haredim in the Knesset have made him popular, but the religious-secular debate is not expected to be on the agenda in a race that will focus on the security and economic crises.

National Religious Party (5) The NRP fell from nine to five MKs in 1999 and went through a soul searching process. The party named charismatic former general Effi Eitam as its chairman with great fanfare, and its members began to speak about restoring the NRP to its former glory. Eitam began visiting poor sectors to take support away from Shas. But polls have shown the Eitam experiment may not succeed and the party may end up with even fewer seats in the next Knesset.

Center (5) This party that started off with great hope in 1999 has completely disintegrated. The four stars who started the party, Yitzhak Mordechai, Amnon Lipkin-Shahak, Dan Meridor, and Roni Milo have all gone their separate ways. The former two have left politics and Milo has joined the Likud. Meridor's future is anyone's guess. Barring unforeseen circumstances, this party will be wiped off the map.

United Torah Judaism (5) UTJ's electorate is consistent. Polls show the party keeping its MKs and possibly gaining a seat from Shas.

Yisrael Ba'aliya (4) Natan Sharansky's party won six seats in the 1999 election, but leftist MK Roman Bronfman separated soon after with an ally, MK Alexander Tsinker, leaving only four. The party has since shifted its focus and abandoned its centrist label. The party now clearly identifies with the nationalist camp and aims to help immigrants from English-speaking countries as well as its traditional electorate from the former Soviet Union. The early election has taken time away from the party's Anglo department to get its message across, but this election will likely determine whether the shift was a smart move politically. Most polls have shown the party obtaining four seats in the race.

Am Ehad (2) This social affairs oriented party will try to stake a claim to centrist voters who care more about the economic crisis than the security situation. They took over Labor's former bastion in the Histadrut and hope to take away mandates from Labor in this election. Polls have shown the party growing in the next Knesset.

Gesher (2), Herut (1) Neither party is expected to win seats in the next Knesset.

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