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'The great global eye-opener
By EFRAIM INBAR
September 11 served as an eye-opener for the Americans, as for others, around the globe. The subsequent reverberations energized US foreign policy and increased American presence in many places, including the Middle East and its immediate vicinity. Moreover, it contributed to strategic clarity in Washington - enabling the identifying of friends and foes.
Israel has generally benefited from this, as it prefers to see the US involved in world affairs. Moreover, Israel falls into the category of those who fought against terrorism. Indeed, the September 11 attacks, whose origins were in the Middle East, strengthened the Israeli claim that we are living in a rough neighborhood and that we are surrounded by serious security threats. They also enhanced understanding for Israel's situation, and reduced the criticism leveled against Israel's own counter-terror campaign.
Significantly for Israel, September 11 weakened the international status of the Arab world. The hegemonic power, the US, has become gradually disappointed with the lack of cooperation it has received, particularly from its two most important Arab allies, Egypt and Saudi Arabia. These two countries displayed much reluctance when asked to supply intelligence on Islamic radicals, to provide services to the American effort in Afghanistan, to cooperate with American policies on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and to support American intervention in Iraq. Their behavior was duly noted in Washington.
In the present anti-terrorist climate, Syria, which has been on the State Department's list of countries supporting terror, is in an even more difficult position. Therefore, it must display greater caution in allowing Hizbullah in South Lebanon to bleed Israel.
Similarly, the Palestinians, who failed to change their terrorist tactics following September 11, are under greater pressure than ever before to do so. Their leader, Yasser Arafat, has even been asked by Washington to step down because of his links to terrorism, and an increasing number of capitals support such a demand, albeit tacitly. It has become less fashionable to portray terrorists as freedom fighters a development conducive to Israeli interests.
Similarly beneficial is the declared American goal of a regime change in Iraq. If Saddam Hussein indeed goes as result of an American war on Iraq, the emergence of a democratic regime in Baghdad is doubtful, but Israel will lose a rabid enemy one of the strongest advocates for its destruction. Such a scenario will weaken the radical stream in the Arab world that, inter alia, has refused to accept Israel and intimidated Arab states from having relations with the Jewish state.
Furthermore, the developments in the Arab world in the post-September 11 period augment the status of states that are more open to Israeli overtures, such as Oman and Qatar. The Americans have recently moved military assets from Saudi Arabia to these countries, which reflects their increased strategic importance for the US, as well as the growing American frustration with Riyadh.
A COROLLARY of September 11 was the worsening of Iran's geostrategic position. While Teheran did not like the Taliban regime, its downfall resulted in a greater American presence in Iran's vicinity. A similar outcome might be also the result of the ousting of Saddam Hussein who is seen as a bitter rival by the mullahs.
The understanding that better Iranian relations with the US are needed is growing in Iran. A parallel development in Teheran vis-a-vis Israel is more difficult to digest, however. Nevertheless, if Iran decides to become friendlier to the US, it will have to lower its anti-Israeli tone.
The new post-September 11 international constellation has also buttressed the Israeli-Turkish entente. Both welcome the greater apprehension of the radical Islamic threat, the demise of the Taliban regime and the greater American presence in Central Asia.
As Turkey's new strategic assessment, recently announced, elevated Iraq and Iran to the top of the list of national threats, there is even greater overlapping than before between Ankara's and Jerusalem's threat perceptions. Indeed, the Turkish soft spot for the Palestinians and decreased tensions with Syria hardly influenced bilateral relations. Business at all levels - economic, cultural, diplomatic and strategic - was conducted as usual.
Actually, during this year, two large arms deals were signed. Turkey awarded the Israel Military Industries contracts to upgrade 170 American-made M60 tanks at a cost of $670 million, as well as to mount electronic warfare systems on 300 military helicopters at a cost of $110m., testifying to the robustness of the Ankara-Jerusalem relationship.
In addition, the strategic partnership Israel developed with India in the latter part of the 1990s was positively influenced by the events of September 11. The threat of extreme Islam and terrorism was amplified, strengthening the strategic glue between the two democratic states.
Sharing similar fears and interests, the Bush administrationviewed the burgeoning Jerusalem-Delhi relationship more positively than before.
The horrific events of September 11, and the heightened threat they represent for many capitals in the West, brought the world closer to Israel's viewpoint. Hopefully, the international impact of these events will not dissipate quickly.
Efraim Inbar is professor of political studies at Bar-Ilan University
and the director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies.
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