Tourism authorities voice cautious optimism over year 2000
By HERB KEINON
FRIDAY, OCTOBER 22, 1999
It may be some time before the book on millennial tourism to the Holy Land
can be written, but it is already possible to pen a title for the first
chapter: 'The amazing tale of shrinking expectations.'
Consider the following news items: In October 1995, then tourism minister
Uzi Baram announced that Israel had set a goal of attracting six million
tourists to the country in the year 2000 and called for developing the
infrastructure to make it possible to meet that goal.
In August 1998, then prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu held a meeting with
his tourism minister, Moshe Katsav, to 'map out a strategy for the
provision of sufficient accommodation to meet the needs of the expected
five million tourists.'
In March of this year, Shabtai Shai, then director-general of the Tourism
Ministry, said that some 4.5 million tourists are expected to come in the
year 2000.
And now, just two months before the start of the celebrated new year, the
projections have been downsized yet again.
'We can now say with certainty that between 2.8 [and] 3.2 million will
arrive next year,' said Danny Shahal, acting director of marketing for the
Tourism Ministry.
Why the sliding expectations? Well, it depends on whom you ask.
The Tourism Ministry says that the original figures were 'scenarios,' not
forecasts. The Israel Hotel Association says that the original numbers were
a reflection of what the country felt capable of absorbing, not necessarily
what officials thought the country would be receiving. And some travel
operators say the reduced forecasts have to do with the government's
failure to allocate enough money to the Tourism Ministry to promote
effectively its most lucrative product - the state itself.
Shahal said that the new, three million figure is not based on theory or
other abstractions, but rather on hard information finally coming in
regarding hotel and airline bookings. Although this number is merely half
of Baram's optimistic figure, it is still half-a-million more tourists than
the record set in 1995, when peace seemed to be blossoming and tourism
appeared to be one of its earliest flowers.
Indeed, said Rony Timsit, general manager of Jerusalem's Hyatt Regency
Hotel, the upturn in tourism, which is already being felt, is as
attributable to the changing political climate in the country today as it
is to the new millennium.
'The recent surge has to do with the atmosphere in the international press
that there is a peace process,' he said. 'That is having a positive impact
on the numbers.'
And right now the numbers are very good. Barbara Shamir, reservations
manager for the International Youth Hostel Association, which runs five
hostels in Jerusalem, said that the hostels are fully booked for December,
something that has not happened in the past.
The improvement is not just at the hostels.
'October has been very good,' said Ya'akov Katz, director of marketing for
the Israel Hotel Association, 'It is impossible to get a room in Jerusalem
today.
'There are a number of reasons for this, one being that it is prior to the
millennium, and some people want to come early to avoid what they expect to
be great crowds next year. But it also has to do with the political
situation.
'In the final analysis, what determines the number of tourists is not the
millennium , or even if the pope will visit in March; it is the political
situation. If it will be quiet, believe me, it will be difficult to find a
hotel room in Jerusalem.'
Despite early concerns that the country might be overrun with so many
tourists that there would simply not be enough beds for everyone, Katz said
that accommodation is now not a problem. The country has some 45,000 hotel
rooms, an increase of 10,000 over the last five years, and - with an
additional 30,000 rooms in hostels and bed-and-breakfast establishments -
can easily accommodate up to four million tourists annually.
Of the estimated 75,000 rooms, about 60 percent are in four- and five-star
hotels, said the Tourism Ministry's Shahal, and the rest are in hostels,
church-run hospices and private bed-and-breakfasts.
'If three million tourists arrive,' Katz said, 'the hotels will be running
at 64% capacity. We can absorb four and five million guests in the hotels.
That type of influx could cause problems at the airport, or at the holy
sites, but as far as rooms are concerned, we are prepared.'
Ami Etgar, general manager of the Israel Incoming Tour Operators
Association, said that bookings for the first half of next year show that
the country will be flooded with tourists during parts of March (when the
pope is expected), April (for Easter and Pessah), and June (when a number
of large conventions are scheduled). Beyond that, he said, 'there is plenty
of [room] for more reservations.'
If three million tourists do arrive next year, that would constitute a
substantial increase from this year, when the number of tourists is
expected to reach 2.5 million. But the three million figure for the
millennium is not a given, Etgar said, and necessitates active marketing to
ensure it.
'The ministry's marketing messages are correct,' he said. 'The problem is
that the budget is not big enough. One reason that the numbers are smaller
then the original projections is because more money was not invested in
marketing. My feeling is that the state is wasting an opportunity in not
allocating more funds for this.'
The ministry's marketing budget for 1999 is NIS 89 million, said Shahal. He
admitted the sum is inadequate.
'If there were a bigger budget for promotion, the number of tourists coming
next year could be 500,000 to a million more,' he said.
Along with the general perception that the country would be swamped with
tourists during the millennium was a widespread misconception: that the
vast majority of those tourists would be Christian pilgrims who want to be
in Israel for the year 2000.
The feeling was that because of an interpretation of the Book of
Revelations, an interpretation accepted by both Catholics and Protestants,
that Jesus's Second Coming - along with Armageddon and the battle with the
anti-Christ - will happen during a millennial year, hundreds of thousands
of believing Christians would want to be here in anticipation.
But this premise was exaggerated from the beginning, said Joshua Schwartz,
a lecturer in ancient Christianity at Bar-Ilan University,
'True, the Book of Revelations can be read in a certain way, and a number
of people get excited about it,' he said. 'But I don't think that the
average Christian in Tulsa is losing sleep over this. I don't think
everybody is going to stop what they are doing and run to Israel.'
Indeed, Shahal said that in the ministry's estimation, the country is
gaining 'only' another 200,000 tourists because of the millennium. Were
next year not the millennial year, he said, the Tourism Ministry would
still be expecting a record year of some 2.8 million tourists.
Much of the 200,000, millennial-induced increase is expected to be
surrounding the pope's visit at the end of March, when a worldwide group of
some 50,000 Catholics is due to arrive. According to Shahal, these people
will arrive regardless of whether the pope cancels his trip, since most of
them have already paid deposits.
Avi Schwartz, sales director for El Al, said that the number of tourists
expected to fly into the country between March 23 and 28, around the time
of the pope's planned visit, is of airlift proportions.
'This is a huge amount of people in such a short period,' said Schwartz.
'We are talking about 150 to 200 flights.' About a third of those flights
will be El Al, he said, another third Alitalia, and another third divided
between other airlines and charters.
In addition to this group, another huge Catholic group - this time from
Mexico - is due to arrive in May.
Shahal said that overall, the pilgrim market is expected to account for 38%
of the tourist traffic next year, as opposed to 22% during 'normal' years.
'Protestant groups come on pilgrimages all the time,' Shahal said. 'What is
clear now is that the Catholics, who don't generally come much on
pilgrimages, will be arriving because of the millennium.
'We are hoping that this breaks a barrier,' Shahal said.
If it does, then next year's tourism turnover may be important not strictly
for its record-breaking numbers, but also because of what it heralds for
2001 - and beyond.
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