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After its stunning defeat at the polls, the party is struggling to resolve not only who will represent the Likud but what the Likud represents. Outgoing Knesset Speaker Dan Tichon recalls how he remonstrated with the coalition MKs who jumped for joy when the government fell, telling them: "You fools! You've just voted yourselves out of a job. "You didn't have to be a prophet to see what would happen," says Tichon, who is retiring after 19 years as a Likud MK. "Not only was it clear that Ehud Barak stood a good chance of coming to power, it was also obvious that many members of the bigger parties would not be back." The root of the Likud's election loss lies not only in Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's campaign and style but with the Direct Election Law which Netanyahu favored, say Tichon and many other Likud MKs. The system caused the Likud to lose many votes, largely to Shas. While Shas jumped from 10 MKs to 17, the Likud fell from 32 (including 10 Gesher and Tsomet MKs) to 19. Therefore the path to recovery includes, among other things, repealing the law that split the vote between the party and the prime minister, Tichon says. This is a recurrent theme in Likud soul-searching, as the party's MKs lick their wounds and wonder what's next. And in a cross between an attempt at consolation and an effort to provide an explanation, they note that Labor-One Israel also shrank in size. But the Likud does not have much with which to console itself. Those trying to put a brave face on the defeat use words like "a constructive experience." But that does not cover the spectrum of problems that the party faces. "The Likud today is in a double crisis: it has lost its identity and it has lost its leadership. And the two things are related," says Likud whip Ruby Rivlin. THE immediate questions facing the party are who will head it in the long term, and whether it should join Ehud Barak's government - if asked. Behind these issues lies a more important one: what direction should the Likud take? "The Likud must look for its identity, and to do this it's best to be in the opposition and not some kind of surplus in a coalition you didn't want and tried to prevent," Rivlin says. "But it is very difficult to be in opposition without a leader. In the coalition it's not so hard because the government is the leader. [Foreign Minister Ariel] Sharon is the only person who can act as the glue at the moment, but the question is whether Sharon will be able to lead a party claiming to be an alternative in the national elections." Rivlin says a symptom of the lack of obvious leadership is Finance Minister Meir Sheetrit's announcement that he sees himself as a candidate for the post. "In ordinary times this would be seen as a curiosity, but today he is considered one of the leading forces within the party. "Sheetrit is an anomaly in the Likud because he represents views so dovish that even in One Israel not everyone accepts them. His ability to lead the Likud as a movement presents us with a dilemma. "He is definitely a charismatic leader, and he is very likable. But, on the other hand, I would consider it absurd for him to be my leader when I see the party going in a [different] direction." That direction, according to Rivlin, is the traditional Land of Israel ideology which Sheetrit does not espouse. Tichon, for his part, sees the party sticking to its traditional path of nationalism and liberalization. MK Naomi Blumenthal, however, notes that one-issue parties like Shinui did better in the elections than those that tried to appeal on several fronts such as the Likud, the National Religious Party and to a large extent, One Israel. "What succeeded in these elections - and it's clear that this is also because of the Direct Election Law - was the one-issue approach: like being against the haredim." This is not good for democracy or for the party, Blumenthal says. "I don't like to think of [the Likud] becoming narrow-minded and focusing on only one issue instead of representing a broad public; but on the other hand I'm scared we will continue to drop more and more." Blumenthal, like Rivlin and Tichon, thinks that sitting in the opposition would be best for the party. "If you're in the government it doesn't give you a real chance to build the party up. Furthermore, I know our ideological lines, and find it hard to believe that we will be able to abide by our principles regarding foreign policy in a government which includes [Meretz leader] Yossi Sarid and [One Israel MK and Oslo Accord architect] Yossi Beilin." Ideology is not dead, says Blumenthal, but abandoned. "Throughout the elections, the national-Zionist camp went almost unrepresented. That's our job. "I don't think we can be party to leaving the Golan Heights and giving away more parts of the Land of Israel." REVAMPING the Likud ideology is not the only job the party must tackle. Rivlin and Tichon say it must also find a way to regain supporters, especially those who voted Shas. "Shas supporters are without a shadow of a doubt Likud supporters. They say they are 'the Likud of the Sephardim and haredim.' The Golem has risen up against its creator. We encouraged Shas because they were a pool of votes for Bibi - but found ourselves ultimately serving them because we allowed them to vote Netanyahu and Shas," says Rivlin. Blumenthal agrees with Rivlin's assessment. "The Direct Election Law is the problem, because people who agreed with our ideological principles - which Binyamin Netanyahu represented as prime minister - voted for Netanyahu and thought they had done their bit. "They voted Netanyahu for his foreign policy and Shas in gratitude for its social policy." Still, Blumenthal rejects the suggestion that the Likud should "fight Shas." "There is a place for Shas. But we have to present an alternative to, for example, the secular people who voted Shas because it fulfilled a social need. We have to be more open," she says. Former cabinet secretary Dan Naveh, a newly elected Likud MK, agrees that the "borders between Shas and us became blurred." Uzi Cohen, a heavyweight in the Likud Central Committee, says that if the Likud joins the government it should not seek ministries like Foreign Affairs, but rather social-oriented ministries to help counter Shas's allure among voters. Toward the end of the election campaign, when it seemed likely that Center Party candidate Yitzhak Mordechai and National Union Party leader Ze'ev (Benny) Begin would step down as candidates for prime minister, the Likud launched a "Likudnik, come home" campaign. This should be continued, say Blumenthal, Tichon and Rivlin. And it isn't only the traditional Likud voters who should be wooed back; so should former MKs Begin and Dan Meridor, who left under Netanyahu. Now that Netanyahu is no longer at the helm it should be easier to bring them back, Blumenthal says. "It's not just because Netanyahu is no longer around, but also because many [of these people] did not find an alternative home. Nor did their new parties win a large number of seats. They are willing to return," she says. Without specifying names, Tichon says many Likudniks have begun to put out feelers about "returning home." All things considered, Blumenthal says the party's recovery depends on "high motivation, goodwill and positive energy. "It's out there; I'm getting phone calls all the time." MANY possible returnees, however, will prefer to see who ends up as party leader before publicly committing themselves to return. In many ways, the youthful nature of the leadership which Netanyahu heralded, and Rivlin supported, has also caused the current crisis, Rivlin says. "The party's top 10 is gray. When Bibi [Netanyahu] skipped a generation we praised the changing of the guard. Now the generation which was overtaken has come back because there is no other leadership," he says. It was the older members - like Sharon and Defense Minister Moshe Arens - who were able to maintain their standing and positions while younger people like Science Minister Silvan Shalom were neutralized by Netanyahu, who was fearful of competition for the party leadership. The only exception, says Rivlin, is former MK and Jerusalem Mayor Ehud Olmert, who chose to step outside the Knesset and bide his time from the powerful mayor's position. "Now Olmert can laugh and say, 'I'm the only leader you have whether you like it or not.' " But solving the question of the party leadership is no guarantee of success, warns newly elected Tzippi Livni. "It would be a mistake to think just choosing a new head will bring the Likud back into power," she says. "Both major parties came crashing down, and the reason is the Direct Election Law." "There is no doubt that the Direct Election Law is the source of the problem," says Rivlin. "I used to have a soccer coach, David Shweizer, who always used to say, 'When you can do something, want it. Otherwise, by the time you want it, you won't be able to do it. "That's why I told the last Knesset, 'Let's change the Direct Election Law now - while we can,' " says Rivlin. "Now the Labor people understand what we meant, because they also dropped in size. The first thing we should all do is change this law." And the sooner the better, if Tichon is right. Having foreseen the change in government and drop in the size of the party's Knesset faction, the veteran politician is willing to voice another prediction: "I can say with certainty that this government will not survive the full four-year term and that the Likud will return to power." The question of its platform and leadership, however, is more difficult to predict.
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