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With the polls down and the pressure on, Yitzhak Mordechai is sitting on a real dilemma: Should he get out of the prime ministerial race? (May 7) - In 1983, the Social Democratic Party stood in the British elections for the first time and promised to break the mold of British politics. The party received 24 percent of the popular vote but was doomed to sit on the opposition benches, its leader, David Owen, a former foreign minister, destined for political obscurity. In 1999, Israel's Center Party is standing for the first time, promising to change the political map in Israel. Polls are suggesting that its leader, former defense minister Yitzhak Mordechai, will receive as little as 5% in the race for the premiership. But unlike Owen, he can still avoid political obscurity. This evening, while the rest of us sit down to a hearty Shabbat meal, Mordechai and his wife, Kochi, may opt for a more rigorous diet of serious soul-searching. As the election clock ticks on, most politicians and pundits expect Mordechai will continue his downward slide, and it seems the Center Party leader may have only one way to ensure his political survival: jumping aboard the lifeboat offered by One Israel leader Ehud Barak. Barak is saying to Mordechai: quit the challenge for the premiership, come on board and you'll be the next defense minister. The other three Center Party founders will also be guaranteed ministerial positions, says Barak, should he defeat Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. The possibility of joining Barak must have seemed more attractive after a visit Mordechai's former paratroopers paid him last Shabbat at his Motza home. The group pleaded with him to renounce his candidacy for prime minister. The following day Mordechai faced a barrage of media reports, all predicting he would quit, despite his adamant denial to the contrary at a hastily organized press conference. "I'll see you on May 18," the day after the first round of voting, he continually insisted. "At first he thought he could convince everyone [in the party] that he could win," said a source close to the party. "Now he just keeps quiet, trying to convince himself." IN THE early days of campaigning, Mordechai was riding at some 20%, only slightly behind Barak; but now the One Israel leader is striding out in the thirty-somethings, while Mordechai is fighting to get his head above the single digit mark. How Mordechai's weekend will ultimately play out largely depends on whether he has already accepted Barak's offer, said Professor Giora Goldberg of both Bar-Ilan University and the College of Judea and Samaria in Ariel. If such a secret agreement exists, Barak can enjoy a rather relaxed weekend. "If not, he'll be thinking about his own future," said Goldberg. But it is not only Mordechai's future that hangs in the balance, it is also the fate of his party, which could lose Knesset seats if its leader steps out of the race. If Mordechai had withdrawn from the race much earlier, says Goldberg, the party could have made a strong standing in the Knesset. Now, however, he thinks it will have little impact either way. Still, there is the chance that with Mordechai out of the race, some voters may split their ballots in favor of the Center Party. "Those Likudniks who are disappointed with Netanyahu's performance could vote Netanyahu for prime minister and then compensate by voting for the Center Party, but this will only be a small number," said Goldberg. "I'm sure that right up to Shabbat, Mordechai will be subjected to extreme pressure [to withdraw] but the discussions within the Center Party are over," said party No. 10 and former Labor MK Haggai Merom. "The decision is that Mordechai will continue to the end - this is unconditional." Merom is one of those likely to be hardest hit by the decline of the party, which is now expected to win only eight or nine seats in the next Knesset, with the possibility of a 10th seemingly slipping away. Party No. 4 Ronni Milo also rules out a decision by Mordechai to back out of the race and is sure that the party leader will instead spend the weekend trying to decide "how to strengthen the Center Party ahead of the elections." Mordechai is not panicking, according to the former Tel Aviv mayor, and instead will think about "how to strengthen and sharpen the [party's] messages." Mordechai may well take time to remap the party's strategy, which Milo admitted needs to change from the more general to the more concrete. In any case, before Mordechai decides one way or another, there is an additional consideration - money. Not his own, not the party's, but the taxpayers'. "The second round will cost the country hundreds of millions of shekels - I repeat hundreds," says former Center Party No. 12, Alex Lubotzky. Lubotzky, who, disenchanted with his low slot and the party's poor performance, left the Center Party for Meimad, is now a member of Barak's One Israel. "With all due respect, it's now clear to everyone that Mordechai's got no chance of making it to the second round - so why force the country to fork out so much money?" WITH the general euphoria that accompanied the establishment of the party petering out, it is not only Mordechai who will be taking a long, hard look at his personal and political aspirations this weekend. A source close to the deliberations of the "gang of four" explained, on condition of anonymity, what each is going through: - Amnon Lipkin-Shahak: After declaring, with great fanfare, his intention to challenge Netanyahu, he has had to get used to the idea that not only will he not be the next prime minister, he is not even the head of his own political party. As a result, he is now dropping strong hints that he does not want a seat in the Knesset, but rather sees himself as the next ambassador to Washington. - Dan Meridor: For the time being he is supporting Mordechai, but in the last few days before the elections he is likely to lean hard on the party leader to quit the race and back Barak. - Ronni Milo: Publicly, he is staunchly behind Mordechai, dismissing suggestions that the Center Party leader will quit the race as utter nonsense. However, he is in the worst position of the four should Mordechai continue. If Mordechai backs Barak's bid, Milo is likely to be offered a role in the government. However, it is highly unlikely that Milo will receive a ministerial portfolio if Mordechai contests the May 17 premiership vote. As such, Milo has been seen in talks with several Labor figures including MK Haim Ramon. One of Mordechai's strongest character traits is his stubbornness, according to spokesman Avi Benayahu, who worked under Mordechai at the Defense Ministry. "He fixes a target, a timetable, assembles the necessary people and runs with it," said Benayahu. Mordechai also considers things very carefully before plunging in, added Benayahu. For example, he spent a month weighing the pros and cons of a break with the Likud before he finally left, he said. At the time Mordechai was well aware that he would be No. 1 on the Likud Knesset list, that he would replace Netanyahu within six months were the incumbent prime minister to lose the election, or within four years if he were victorious. Because there is so much at stake, Benayahu concluded, Mordechai will not ruin his weekend by thinking about the "what ifs," but rather the logistics of how to win the first round of voting. In order to attain that ever-distancing target, Mordechai must rely heavily on committed supporters at the grass-roots level. The Center Party now has more than 130 branches and over 20,000 activists, which is a considerable achievement for a party only three months old. And it is the hope of these dedicated volunteers that Mordechai will think of them when he makes his final decision. British-born Jerusalem activist Daniel Chalfen hopes Mordechai will take the volunteers' efforts into account. "I honestly think that he will actually feel that he is letting down people around him if he drops out before the first round," said Chalfen. "He'd also be letting down a lot of voters, who've given him their trust." Chalfen will have to wait until at least after this weekend for his answer. And if Mordechai takes his cue from the British Social Democrats, which eventually merged with another small party, he's likely to throw in the towel.
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