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The prime ministerial candidates have hardly strayed from their beaten paths. Ehud Barak took the way to the land of social and economic issues; Binyamin Netanyahu walked down the path to the familiar terrain of security and foreign affairs. The journey has been long and winding, with ample opportunities for detours. Yet both candidates have wavered little from their well-defined road maps. The overall strategy of each campaign was set even before the Knesset dissolved. Barak would pound on the economic and social issues, while Netanyahu would stress diplomatic and security ones. The campaign has essentially been little more than tactical fine-tuning, some minor variations on these themes. The most glaring example of this late-campaign fine-tuning, said Ya'acov Katz, a pollster from Bar-Ilan University, has been Barak's sudden appeal to the Russian immigrants, an appeal that has taken the form of a pledge not to hand over the Interior Ministry to Shas. "Barak understands that he does not have much support among the immigrants," Katz said. "By promising not to give the Interior Ministry to Shas, he hopes to cut into Netanyahu's support among the immigrants." This support, according to Yisrael Ba'aliya polls, is running about 70 to 30 in favor of Netanyahu, and even a swing of a few percentage points in Barak's direction could have a major impact on the outcome. Another late-game adjustment that Barak seems to have made, said Katz, is emphasizing his rich military history. "The attempt is now to build him up as Mr. Security, while at the same time saying nothing about his policy. The idea they are trying to get across is that because he was decorated, because he was the chief of staff, he knows what security means, and it is possible to rely on him." All this, Katz pointed out, without spelling out what Barak's specific policy on security matters will be. THE EMPHASIS on Barak's military career, said Roni Rimon, a Tel Aviv-based political consultant, is also an attempt to win over more Russian immigrants. "There are many immigrants who just don't know about him or his military career," said Rimon, adding that a general assumption about the immigrants is that they appreciate strength - strength that is found in Barak's military past. But the emphasis on the military, on Barak's medals and his involvement in the overpowering of the Sabena hijackers and in planning the Entebbe rescue, is also directed toward veteran Israelis, Rimon maintained. Agreeing that most Israelis are aware of Barak's military record, Rimon said, "There is a difference between what you know and what you need to be reminded of; between something that is part of your overall general knowledge and something that pops into your mind whenever you think about someone. "That is what they are trying to do, make this point about Barak's military background stick out in your mind." Netanyahu's tactic, said Rimon, is to continue talking about diplomatic and security issues. "He has nothing else to sell," Rimon said, adding that all incumbents are at somewhat of a disadvantage in a campaign because they can be held accountable for things they have, or have not, done. "It is easier for the challenger in many respects," Rimon said. "He has more ammunition. He can take everything that the government has or has not done over the year and attack. Anyone who does something in office will also have failures. It is not difficult to take those failures and put them in the spotlight." Rimon claimed that the way Netanyahu has chosen to deflect an emphasis on his failures is simply to divert the issue, talk about something else. He has also increasingly trotted out his finance minister, Meir Sheetrit, a tactical move that Rimon said has proven somewhat effective. "The centerpiece of Netanyahu's campaign remains political/security issues," Rimon said. "But the purpose of the campaign at this point is not only to persuade the undecided to vote for Bibi. One of the central goals now is to strengthen the supporters, convince them that they are in the right camp, doing the right thing, despite what is being said about their leader. "Sheetrit is good at this," Rimon said. "He gives the party's supporters points to talk about, an important part of the campaign. I went to my mechanic the other day, a strong Likudnik, and he was using arguments he heard the night before on the television broadcasts. These arguments are simple; you don't have to have a doctorate to use them, and they help people feel good about their vote, they strengthen the convinced." IF BARAK and Netanyahu have stayed close to their campaign, Yitzhak Mordechai, according to Rimon, has not yet found a theme beyond wanting to topple Netanyahu. "Mordechai has only one message," Rimon said, "but it is a message that becomes less relevant day by day. He says Barak is okay, not a bad alternative, but if the only thing you want to do is get rid of Netanyahu, then don't take a chance on Barak - vote for Mordechai." If Mordechai's percentages in the polls were a bit higher, Rimon said, there might be some justification to his message. "But as he is dropping in the polls and as it becomes clear that he won't get into the second round, this message becomes more and more irrelevant. "But it is the only one he and his party have. It is a party created by a particular situation, not an ideology - the only ideology is to get rid of Netanyahu; nothing else links those in the party." According to Rimon, Mordechai is staying in the race for two reasons: personal honor, and to help the party place more representatives in the Knesset. "If Mordechai dropped out of the prime ministerial race the party would lose half of its MKs," Rimon speculated. "People will vote for Mordechai because they want to get rid of Netanyahu, but if he drops out, why vote for the party? It is just another small party, like all the others. "Mordechai is in a real bind. He has to stay in the race to help get more MKs from his party into the Knesset, but on the other hand, he has to leave the race if he wants to get a key position in the next government." In exchange for bowing out now, Rimon said, Mordechai could get whatever he wanted from Barak. "What he will be able to get from Barak afterward, if Barak wins, is a function of the election results, and the new situation that will be created," Rimon said. "It is not clear how many seats he will get, or how many the others will get. What is clear is that he will be able to get the highest price now, not later."
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Two campaign roads emerged from the Knesset on that night five months ago when new elections were formally declared.
