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While Palestinian Authority officials are eagerly anticipating a Barak victory, the man in the street in Ramallah doesn't think the Israeli election results will make a difference. Yet other Palestinian Authority leaders have hardly concealed their keen interest in the polling, evincing a thinly veiled preference for Labor Party leader Ehud Barak. After a meeting of the extended cabinet in Ramallah last Saturday, Arafat spokesman Nabil Abu Rudeineh issued a message to the Israeli electorate. "The Palestinian people have chosen peace. We believe that peace, stability and coexistence are for the benefit of both peoples," it said. Nabil Shaath, the PA minister of planning and international cooperation, was more explicit during recent deliberations about whether to declare statehood on May 4. "We would like to see coming out of this election a government committed to producing the final results of the permanent status negotiations. We want a committed partner, and because that is important, it must be a part of our decision making." Asked Tuesday about his hopes for the elections, Palestinian Legislative Council Speaker Ahmed Qreia was careful to specify that the PA would deal with any elected government. But his wish list for the post-election period points to what would be an unimaginable policy departure for Likud: a halt to settlement activity and cessation of Israeli measures in Jerusalem such as the bid to close Orient House and other Palestinian institutions, house demolitions and confiscation of identity cards. The PA also has its sights set on implementation of the Wye Memorandum and the launching of permanent-status negotiations on Jerusalem, borders, refugees and other issues, he said. "A good message from the Israeli government will impact on the [PLO] Central Council," which is due to resume its deliberations on declaring statehood in June, Qreia added. THE PA's sense of anticipation about a possible Barak victory is not, it seems, widely shared on the Palestinian street, where residents recalled tough times under both Labor and Likud governments. "In fact, these parties are the same," said Ahmad Awad, an X-ray technician at Mokassed Hospital on the Mount of Olives in Jerusalem. "I'm 38 years old and I've seen both Labor and Likud in power. I remember when Labor [defense minister Yitzhak Rabin] was in charge during the intifada," said Awad, a resident of the part of Beit Safafa captured during the Six Day War. "Barak is a hawk, he comes from the most extreme part of Labor, and in this sense he is not different from the Likud hawks," added Awad. But giving voice to the conflict between hope and experience, he said: "If a good left-wing government emerges from this election and it implements the Oslo agreement, it will be a positive thing." Awad, who has watched campaign ads in which both parties stress that there will be no concessions in Jerusalem, said that no matter who wins Beit Safafa will remain in Israeli hands. Stepping onto his porch, which overlooks a modest grove of olive trees, he pointed to nearby Jewish neighborhoods: Gilo, Malha, Kiryat Hayovel. "You won't ever see a Palestinian policeman walking around here. It's possible that al-Aksa [mosque] will be returned to the Palestinians, but not Beit Safafa. It is surrounded." IN RAMALLAH, Nadir Shamia, standing among a group of friends in their late 20s and early 30s, predicted "a surface change" if Barak wins. "Maybe there will be a change in style but not substance," he said. "Both Barak and Netanyahu reject the ingredients of our state in terms of borders, territorial contiguity and a [strong] economy." A friend added: "All the parties have one goal: the most land for Jews, the least for Arabs. They all have lines beyond which they won't go - all of Jerusalem under Israeli control, all of the settlements remain, and breaking up [Palestinian land] into enclaves. "All the candidates [for prime minister] have held military and political posts in which they fought Palestinians and spilled Palestinian blood. "I'm waiting for the results, but without great hopes," he said. Mohammed Ali Batir, a hotel worker, also predicted the elections wouldn't make much of a difference. "The candidates' views are the same - they don't want peace. Israel will only make peace if the United States pressures it to do so," said Batir, who spent three years in jail during the intifada for being an activist of the Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine. Such skepticism toward the Israeli elections corresponds broadly with the findings of a survey taken last month by the Jerusalem Media and Communications Center (JMCC), an east Jerusalem research institute. Asked whether a Labor victory would make Palestinian political conditions better, the same, or worse, most responded that they would remain the same (50.2 percent) or get worse (18.8 percent). Twenty-four and a half percent of respondents envisioned no change, and 6.5 percent gave no answer. Seven hundred and sixty-one West Bankers and 438 Gazans were queried in the survey, which had a 3 percent margin of error. IN THE view of Ghassan Khatib, director of JMCC, the gap between the PA's hopes for election day and the public's low expectations reflect differences in experience. While PA figures who came from outside the territories tend to view Labor mostly as a negotiating partner, residents recall the party as having overseen hard-hitting occupation measures against them - settlement construction, deportations, curfews. "The politicians are looking ahead," said Khatib. "The leaders in the Authority did not live the practical experiences. Their practical experience started in the negotiations, where there have been differences between the two parties. Labor designed Oslo and has a different attitude toward it, so they assume a Labor-led government will be more committed to it than Likud." Still, part of the public is eyeing a possible change. "I'm not mentioning names. I just want someone who will be good for the peace process," said Hosni Shehadeh, a Ramallah businessman. "I want there to be a choice of moderate people to take the correct path to peace. If there are positive results from this election, it will be good for both peoples." A customer in a tailor shop, who declined to give his name, said: "With Barak, maybe there can be negotiations, but with Netanyahu it's impossible. He is against Arabs. Barak seems to be a more positive person." Sultan Fathi, 24, who works in a bank, said: "With Barak's party we might have results that are less bad than those with Netanyahu." But, he added, "whether Barak or Netanyahu wins it won't make any difference in terms of Palestinian statehood because neither will allow the Palestinians to declare a state. The technique of each would be to destroy that dream." Moreover, says Fathi, "Jerusalem is an issue on which the Israeli parties have the same strategy. None of them is capable of allowing Jerusalem to be the capital of two peoples. The [Israeli] public won't support it." PALESTINIAN opposition elements, meanwhile, hold out no hope of an improvement, partly because they reject the Oslo process that Barak may revive. In their view, Oslo has dealt a lethal blow to hopes to viable statehood and an Israeli withdrawal to the 1967 borders. Omar Abu Obeid, a hardware store owner who was imprisoned during the 1960s, '70s, '80s, and '90s for his role in the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, said: "Maybe Barak will allow transit between the West Bank and Gaza Strip; he may even agree to a capital in Abu Dis. But this is not good enough. "The problem is the occupation. Where will the state be without a full withdrawal? With all of the settlements, where will the state be? "The only difference between One Israel and the Likud is that One Israel will slap you in the face and say I'm sorry, while Likud will just slap you in the face," added Abu Obeid, whose family roots are in Ramle. His work space is adorned with pictures of Kurdish leader Abdullah Ocalan, who is imprisoned in Turkey, and of Yehiya Ayyash, the Hamas bombmaker and PFLP leader Ghassan Kanafani, both reportedly assassinated by Israel. Above that trinity is a picture of the Old City and to the side of it a map of Palestine with all the villages that existed before the War of Independence. Abu Obeid took issue with Palestinian leaders for awaiting the election results, a stance he said was embodied in the PLO decision to delay the statehood declaration. "You can't build your policies on waiting for another people's elections. If I wait for Barak to be my messiah, where does that leave me as a person? I shouldn't expect someone who killed [Palestinians] to be my messiah." Asked about an alternative to the PA's strategy, Abu Obeid responded: "A condition of continuous struggle against the occupation. There is nothing else but that." Ghazi Hamed, editor of the Hamas-affiliated Risala newspaper, based in Gaza City, also sees no real change in the offing. "Barak will be interested in pushing the peace process forward, but he won't give much to the Palestinians. He will accept something called a state, but without any teeth or powers. "The Palestinian street, just as it did not care about the [May 4] declaration, won't care about this election," he added. "The feeling is that everything is going backwards, and people are getting nothing from these games. "The Palestinian Authority is following a strategy of waiting - first for the Israeli elections, than for the American elections, then for a summit in six months. It feels like we should wait forever, and it increases the degree of frustration. We [already] waited for five years and got nothing," Hamed said. But in Ramallah, Fathi, the bank worker, offered a different view: "The night of the elections will be very a important occasion," he said. "Palestinians won't go to sleep until they know who has won. "In our minds, we don't think there will be any change [if Barak wins]," Fathi said. "But in our hearts, we are hoping otherwise."
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(May 13) - Israelis going to the polls Monday will have to choose a prime minister without the sage advice of Yasser Arafat, who has refrained from endorsing any candidate.
