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(May 20) - Right now the blueprints for the next coalition are all strictly in the head of the prime minister-elect and he doesn't know much for sure. Even if Ehud Barak had more than broad lines sketched out, nothing is final. He will have to deal with the interaction - at cross purposes - of his various partners. Besides issues of policy guidelines, which might be less of a problem than is supposed (the guidelines will be very general), there will be factional greed and personal egos. Barak will only start attending to his coalition task Sunday, yet some indications of where he is headed do exist. First and foremost are persistent reports, corroborated very reliably from both One Israel and the Likud, to the effect that Barak is sending out messages that he wants the Likud in his coalition. This has become a viable option especially after Binyamin Netanyahu announced he will step down as party leader, and after the Likud chose Ariel Sharon as its caretaker leader and therefore its chief negotiator. Sharon is a veteran proponent of national unity and was personally instrumental in putting several such governments together in the past. Moreover, a year ago he hobnobbed with Shimon Peres in an attempt to force another unity government on the leaders of the two large parties. The pragmatic Sharon is the ideal negotiating partner for Barak. The fear among veteran Laborites, though, is that in the end Sharon will walk away with the coveted foreign affairs portfolio. They paint a nightmare scenario, from their vantage point, in which the new government's top portfolios will all end up in the hands of present or past Likudniks. Besides Sharon as foreign minister, Yitzhak Mordechai could get defense again (despite Barak's earlier stated intentions to keep the portfolio himself) and David Levy would finally have finance (which he almost got from Netanyahu last year). The distinct possibility is that these senior Laborites are engaged in deliberate fear-mongering in order to assure that top portfolios would not all be denied them. Thus the Labor rumor-mill mentions Peres as possibly interested in the foreign ministry, unless Barak sews a peace portfolio for him. Shlomo Ben-Ami and Yossi Beilin are definitely vying for foreign affairs, and one must not forget Gesher's Levy who also has his eye on it. The second choice of all three is said to be the finance portfolio, which is also avidly sought by Avraham (Baiga) Shohat, who might have to make do with trade and industry. The ex-generals around Barak, led by Matan Vilna'i, want the defense portfolio. Vilna'i in particular does not want his arch-foe Mordechai to get it, especially when Mordechai's bargaining power is so diminished. Terrible tussles are expected over education and the interior portfolios. Laborites, like Dalia Itzik, Vilna'i and Avraham Burg have staked claims for education, as has Avi Ravitzky of Meimad. The NRP is intent on keeping education and Meretz's Amnon Rubinstein also wants it. Yisrael Ba'aliya wants the the Interior Ministry undernash kontrol, but so do some in Labor (like Haim Ramon) and Yossi Sarid of Meretz. Most One Israel sources agree that Barak prefers the Likud to Shas as his largest coalition partner. He is also being encouraged by most higher-ups in his party to opt for the Likud. The one hold-out is Ramon who continues to insist that Barak ought to go the Shas route. The pro-Likud advocates argue that if the Likud becomes subservient to a One Israel prime minister, it would further lose its ability in future to present itself as an alternative to the party of power. Given its truncated size it anyway will not be an equal partner. It would serve Barak well if the Likud is under his thumb and away from the far Right which will no doubt rage when territorial concessions are made. A government which includes the Likud would be able to speak on behalf of the national consensus. This would assure Barak fewer confrontations of the sort that rocked Yitzhak Rabin's administration. Shas is tainted by its campaign against the legal system, even if Aryeh Deri is not directly in charge of the coalition negotiations. Laborites share the Likud's alarm at Shas's growth and do not want it to increase its strength to the point where it threatens the established political frameworks. This leads them to conclude that it would be healthy for Israeli democracy to keep Shas in the opposition. That might not necessarily dry up the resources which fuel its school system and other institutions, but it would weaken Shas by distancing it from the centers of power. Finally, Meretz says it won't join a coalition with Shas in it, regardless of Deri's absence. Barak will want Meretz in his coalition, since it is considered a sister party. With the Likud in shambles, odds are that there will not be great opposition in it to joining the coalition, if only to keep its political head above water. Sharon, Moshe Arens, Meir Sheetrit and Dan Naveh have already spoken in favor of joining the government, despite Netanyahu's objections and those of Uzi Landau, Tzahi Hanegbi and Reuven Rivlin. The expected fights in the Likud will not be so much about entering the coalition as about who gets what. A great scramble is expected for appointments. The same competition, with even greater intensity, is expected in Labor, which fears that it will be left with only the scraps. Vilna'i has reportedly threatened to "tell all" about Barak if he doesn't get a suitable portfolio, while Burg announced he'd rather go home than become "the 15th Knesset's Haggai Merom." Barak has declared that his own party members will be dealt with only when he finishes his business with outside partners. This has not put Laborites at ease. To accommodate all the demands there will have to be more than 18 ministers. Barak has already mentioned 25.
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