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(July 7) - It would take nothing less than a calamitous political quake to shake the new government sworn in last night. It is far more stable than meets the eye. If nothing cataclysmic jolts it, the government could well survive its full term, despite its clapboard construction directly over a fault line, with apparent flagrant disregard for basic safety codes. On the face of it, this government looks disaster-bound. It comprises no less than seven factions, many of them openly and aggressively at cross purposes. If they begin bickering and jostling for clout, Ehud Barak could end up squandering much of his energy just keeping order in his house. This would be no easy task, considering that the central component of the government, One Israel, accounts for merely a third of the coalition. Ahead of the government are some of the potentially most difficult decisions which any government has ever had to make, including perhaps extremely painful and extensive territorial concessions. These are only a few of the factors which could conceivably shorten this government's life. Just keeping Shas and Meretz at arm's length from each other would be no mean achievement. Meretz would be bound to show its own electorate that Tommy Lapid is wrong and that it had not sold out its principles for the perks of coalition membership. It will have to show that it is as adamant as ever on issues of conscripting yeshiva students, for example, drafting a constitution and protecting civil rights. The haredi parties would be as bound to demonstrate to their voters that they had not sold out either and that they will protect and maintain the status quo. While all this goes on, Barak will have to prove to the public that he is indeed changing the government's priorities and ushering in a new dawn. Considering the rumblings beneath his coalition's surface, it won't be simple. Even before he gets to the major, potentially explosive issues, he will court trouble by merely attending to mundane matters. He already has two ministers who were handed empty portfolios - Shimon Peres's regional planning and Haim Ramon's bits of this and that. Barak will have to fill these portfolios and that inevitably means taking goodies away from other ministers. Barak has yet to discover just how possessive his partners can be. He, for instance, promised to remove the Israel Lands Authority from the National Infrastructure Ministry. The new minister, Eli Suissa, made no bones about his utter lack of interest in his new brief. Nevertheless, Suissa is expected to put up a mammoth fight not to be deprived of any significant source of funds or influence. He will be backed to the hilt by the entire Shas Knesset contingent. Because of its very size, Shas is the one faction with which it would be most dangerous for Barak to tangle. It is the only faction, whose departure from the coalition could theoretically deprive Barak of his parliamentary majority, though all sides know that as soon as Shas is out, there might be new recruits, - like Shinui - to restore the majority, albeit not as broad. But Barak will take care to avoid shocks and tremors and he will treat Shas as gently as possible. Still, any concessions he makes to Shas are guaranteed to rile others. Some inside the coalition will be on the lookout for any manipulation behind the scenes by Aryeh Deri. Even if Meretz deliberately turns a blind eye and decides that it's best to pretend that Deri is out of the game, Shinui can be trusted to raise a racket if Deri pulls any Shas strings. If he does, he may not be too friendly towards Barak and may stir trouble from afar for him. Few of the other coalition members are kindred spirits, either, and there is no telling how Yisrael Ba'aliya and Shas will get along or how the National Religious Party and Meretz will coexist inside the Education Ministry. If Barak seeks to implement Wye, even before contracting any new agreements, there is no telling how the NRP will react. But bad as all this might appear for Barak at first glance, odds are that the earth will not tremble under his government. Little love is lost for the new prime minister in his own faction, but there is little the members can do. They will be afraid to get on his bad side, lest they imperil future appointments or expose themselves to his vengeful score-keeping. Barak cryptically alludes to a future cabinet reshuffle. It may be just a ploy to keep the malcontents hopeful and therefore in line. But they can't be absolutely sure Barak is not dangling a real carrot after all. The other coalition parties will not lightly leave their ministerial latifundia. Barak cleverly paid them off handsomely. The incentives for staying put are too great. None of the partners will risk a very good deal unless there is no viable alternative and they are forcibly ejected by a major seismic upheaval, the likes of which no one can now foresee.
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