By BEN LYNFIELD

When Jordan's new crown prince, Abdullah, shakes hands Sunday in Amman with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, he may - perhaps unwittingly - be providing a photo opportunity for the Likud election campaign.

Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Ariel Sharon sought the visit to Jordan to meet the 37-year-old army general who is in line to take the throne after his ailing father, King Hussein. Given the popularity of peace with Jordan among Israeli voters, the meeting has the potential to give Netanyahu an electoral boost.

While the region's Arab opinion-makers and analysts are hoping Netanyahu will be defeated in the May 17 elections and that peace negotiations will be revived, leaders and officials are generally cautious about voicing this preference, or appearing to favor Labor.

'Jordan cannot afford to take sides in the elections,' said Abdullah Hasanat, executive editor of the Jordan Times, before the announcement of the Netanyahu trip. 'This would be precarious [for Jordan].'

In contrast to the 1996 elections, when, according to Hasanat, there was reportedly 'a bit of sentiment' in Amman in favor of Netanyahu out of the belief he could make a stronger peace than Labor, there is now widespread resentment towards him.

'The sentiment in the street and among analysts and writers is one of strong support for Labor and of pinning hopes on the new [center] party. But we still need to hear the final programs of all the parties,' Hasanat said.

Jordan's main interest in the polling concerns its impact on the Palestinian-Israeli negotiations, Hasanat explained.

'At the end of the day we believe that if the negotiations on the Palestinian-Israeli front fail, this will impact negatively on Jordan, and if they succeed it will have a very positive impact,' Hasanat said. He concurred with descriptions of the elections as 'fateful.'

SUCCESSFUL negotiations will lead to an easing of border crossings between Jordan, the Palestinian areas, and Israel, as well as improved trade and travel between the three, Hasanat said. More investors would be attracted to the region, including Jordan, and a variety of economic gains would follow, including Jordanian use of the planned Gaza seaport, he said.

However, a failure of the negotiations and the resultant violence in the West Bank and Gaza Strip could prompt unrest in Jordan, said Hasanat, and would impact on investment and tourism. Clashes would result in pressure on the Jordanian government by opposition groups and Palestinians to cut or downgrade ties with Israel, he said.

In Hasanat's view, the basic difference between Labor and Likud is that 'Labor is ready to compromise and to compromise a great deal. The Likud and right-wing parties are basically ideological and want to keep what they call the Land of Israel.'

Hasanat said Jordanian observers recall the secret understanding between Yossi Beilin and PA negotiator Mahmoud Abbas on Jerusalem as an indication Labor is willing to make compromises there, despite unyielding campaign statements by party leader Ehud Barak. The understanding calls for the establishment of a Palestinian capital in Abu Dis, just beyond the municipal boundary Israel set after capturing the Jordanian-controlled part of the city along with the rest of the West Bank during the Six Day War.

Past references by Labor leaders to the dismantling of settlements have also been recalled in recent newspaper columns, he said.

JORDANIAN disillusionment with Netanyahu stems not only from the freezing of the peace negotiations with the Palestinians, but also from the assassination attempt in 1997 against Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal in Amman, said Hasanat.

This has by no means receded from memory, especially in light of recent statements by Mashaal that Israel is still trying to kill him, he added.

In Hasanat's view, Netanyahu is someone who is prevented by ideology from making territorial compromises. 'In many ways you feel that he looks down at Arabs and this is what we don't like,' he added. 'Rabin was a soldier and respected his opponents, but Netanyahu is a different breed. I don't think he respects his opponents.' Barak, for his part, has not made a strong impression in Jordan, said Hasanat.

'Barak comes across as someone who doesn't strike you as a strong politician with strong convictions. He doesn't seem to have a vision the way the late Rabin had.'

As for the leaders of the Center Party, Hasanat said: 'I really like [Amnon Lipkin-] Shahak, he's a man of integrity. And perhaps [Yitzhak] Mordechai's Kurdish connection will give him a different view of the whole Middle East.'

EGYPTIAN leaders are also wary that showing an obvious preference for Labor could put Cairo in an awkward position if the Likud wins. Some analysts and public figures, too, appear to be reticent about clearly stating their preferred outcome from the polling.

Salah Bassiouny, a former diplomat who heads the Cairo Peace Movement, said: 'I don't consider that the government of Likud or one with Labor, Meretz and the centrists would be more forthcoming. When a government is in power things are different than during election time. So we shall have to wait and see.'

But when asked what the prevalent feeling in Cairo is about Netanyahu, Bassiouny replied: 'Our experience with Netanyahu is bitter and very disappointing. If he continues in this way, the whole peace process will be in jeopardy.'

Egypt's interest is that the elections lead to a revival of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations and the reopening of talks on the Syrian and Lebanese tracks, Bassiouny said. He supports the view that a Palestinian declaration of statehood on May 4, when interim self-rule arrangements are due to expire, could help Netanyahu - and should therefore be postponed until after the elections.

'We don't want the declaration to be used in any way that would be counterproductive,' Bassiouny said. 'I think that to a great extent the peace process depends on the outcome [of the elections], including the Lebanese and Syrian tracks, not only the Palestinian-Israeli question,' Bassiouny said. 'We want a comprehensive peace and are looking forward to achieving this comprehensive peace.'

In Bassiouny's view, Labor leaders and Mordechai 'are to be trusted more as far as the peace process is concerned [than Likud]. The Netanyahu government has created a very deep bitterness, whether with the Palestinians, here in Egypt or in other Arab countries.'

HOWEVER, according to a Palestinian analyst, Munzer Dajani, Netanyahu might still be able to play a role in assuring success for the Israeli-Palestinian talks.

For Dajani, research director at the Al-Bireh-based Palestinian Center for Regional Studies, the best outcome of the elections would be the formation of a national unity government. 'A coalition between Labor and Likud will give the ruling majority in Israel a consensus on implementation, even if it is headed by Netanyahu.'

'You don't become a statesman by being inflexible, and Netanyahu has to reflect what the Israeli public wants,' he added.

Dajani said the elections are being closely watched by Palestinians both because they will determine the future of the peace negotiations and because of their proximity to May 4.

'This is a very sensitive election for us, more so than previous ones,' he said. 'It is our chance to know where each party stands on the sensitive issues: Jerusalem, refugees, settlements, water. What concerns the Palestinians is to know where the Israeli public stands.'

In Dajani's view, 'there are major differences between what the Likud stands for and what Labor stands for. We feel Labor is more committed to peace regardless of its slogans during the elections. They are committed to the Oslo Accords and they will implement [them], while we feel the Likud doesn't seem to find the peace accords in the interest of the state of Israel.'

Dajani favors postponing the declaration of statehood until after the elections so as not to give the Netanyahu government a pretext to follow through on threats to respond by annexing parts of the West Bank. 'We have waited 50 years. We can wait a few more weeks,' he said.

UNLIKE mainstream analysts, Ghazi Hamed, the editor of the Hamas-affiliated newspaper in Gaza, al-Risala, sees no difference between the policies of Labor and Likud. 'Both say 'Jerusalem is our capital' and favor settlements. Barak doesn't have the courage to say anything against settlements and is visiting them,' he said. 'We tested the Labor Party during the beginning of the peace process and the Palestinian Authority always complained that nothing was being implemented.'

Hamed predicts that Israelis will once again opt for Netanyahu. 'I think the Israeli people still support Netanyahu as the only one who can put pressure on the Palestinian Authority. The Israeli people are still living in a panic that they are surrounded by enemies and they feel the need for a strong person to protect them,' he said.

Links in this section:
More than a token victory?
The power game
Neighborhood watch
'I don't pay attention to polls'
Population shifts